Why financial inclusion is now an AI story

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Climate shocks continue to undermine financial stability for millions of people living on the economic margins. For vulnerable households and small businesses, a flood, typhoon, or other climate disaster can quickly disrupt incomes and damage assets, pushing people further into financial distress.As climate shocks increase in frequency and severity, traditional aid systems have not yet evolved to meet growing needs or pressures. Often slow and fragmented, traditional channels including cash and voucher assistance (CVA) or physical vouchers also offer limited visibility into how resources move. For example, CVA can involve multiple intermediaries, creating challenges around last-mile delivery and beneficiary identification, while making it harder to track whether support reaches the people who need it most. In climate-vulnerable areas, when assistance arrives can be just as important as how much arrives.New models of open finance and data-enabled financial infrastructure offer an opportunity to deliver aid and climate finance more quickly and transparently. With individuals’ permission, <a href="https://www.mastercard.com/us/en/business/open-finance.html?cmp=2026.q1.glo.glo.merch.brand.ser.others.open-finance-sem-campaign--brand-ad-nam-2026.701uh00000jsdy9yag.sep.txt.googles&amp;channel=sep&amp;campaign_id=701UH00000jSDy9YAG&amp;gad_source=1&amp;gad_campaignid=23229880529&amp;gclid=Cj0KCQjw8c3VBhCsARIsAA_xJ92Qy2ynLe7JWer0Ry6amsea1WNCGrZGItpQEvI3IxqCQiMRXtzc964aAsaeEALw_wcB" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank" class="">Mastercard Open Finance</a> solutions can help financial institutions use permissioned financial data to better understand income, cash flow, and financial circumstances. These insights can support tools designed to identify potential signs of financial stress, personalize financial guidance, and help support access to credit for individuals and small businesses that may be underserved. In partnership with the <a href="https://www.mastercardcenter.org/" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank" class="">Mastercard Center for Inclusive Growth</a>, Mastercard’s Open Finance team is exploring how responsible data innovation can help make emerging financial ecosystems more inclusive.By combining digital technology with mobile access and blockchain, these models can improve how resources reach communities at risk while strengthening financial and climate resilience.

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<a href="https://rahat.io" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank" class="">Rahat</a>, a blockchain-powered financial access platform developed by Nepal-based social enterprise <a href="https://rumsan.com" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank" class="">Rumsan</a>, is a leading example of this approach. Designed to streamline CVA distribution while improving transparency, accountability, and financial inclusion, Rahat’s Anticipatory Action (AA) module provides early warnings and cash support before the onset of floods and other disasters.The platform leverages mobile phones and blockchain technology, including smart contracts, to support anticipatory and immediate CVA, as well as microinsurance with instant payouts. Its multi-signature AA trigger system provides project stakeholders with real-time information to support swift action when predefined climate-risk thresholds are reached. Beneficiaries can receive early warnings through SMS or interactive voice recordings (IVR), followed by financial assistance when a trigger is activated.The approach shifts the focus from responding after a disaster, to helping communities prepare before it happens.

Learning from NepalA <a href="https://reachalliance.org/reports/blockchain-for-social-impact-empowering-vulnerable-communities-against-climate-shocks-in-nepal/" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank" class="">2024–25 Reach Alliance project</a>, supported by the Mastercard Center for Inclusive Growth, demonstrated Rahat’s potential for anticipatory action in Nepal. In a 2024 pilot, 774 climate-affected individuals received financial assistance within approximately five and a half hours after a disaster trigger was activated, while more than 4,500 beneficiaries received early warning notifications before impact.Across its partnerships, Rahat has reached more than 80,000 lives, including through work with UNICEF and the Danish Red Cross. The platform has also been certified as a Digital Public Good and recognized by MIT Solve and the UNICEF Venture Fund.Speed is only part of the challenge. Many households in climate-vulnerable regions can lack access to formal financial services or official identification altogether, limiting their ability to save, build resilience, or qualify for aid. At Mastercard, open finance addresses a parallel challenge: using permissioned financial data to help build a more holistic picture of an individual's or small business's financial health, which can support financial inclusion for those who have historically lacked access to financial services.The experience in Nepal raised a broader question: how can a model that has shown promise in one context be adapted and scaled to other geographies facing increasingly frequent and severe climate shocks?

Scaling Up to the Philippines Momentum accelerated at the <a href="https://reachalliance.org/event/2025-reach-conference-singapore/" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank" class="">2025 Reach Alliance Conference</a> at Singapore Management University, where an inaugural hackathon challenged participants to map Rahat’s global expansion. Building on its early success in Nepal, the hackathon winners identified the Philippines as the next testing ground—a country frequently hit by typhoons and floods, where faster response times could significantly reduce damage and displacement.The Philippines is one of the world’s most climate-vulnerable countries, experiencing around 20 typhoons each year. Climate-related shocks push nearly one million people into poverty annually, while climate change could reduce GDP by 7.6% by 2030. Category 5 typhoons can also contribute to higher inflation, lower agricultural productivity, and disrupted incomes.Small businesses are particularly vulnerable. Beyond damage to physical storefronts, disasters can lead to a collapse in demand, creating liquidity constraints and threatening jobs and livelihoods. These challenges can be compounded by additional barriers to financial recovery, including limited access to credit and digital technologies.At the same time, the Philippines has conditions that make it an important geography for exploring the scale-up of anticipatory financial infrastructure. Its degree of digital access is similar to Nepal, while its local government structure could provide a pathway for adoption and implementation at the community level.Together, these factors point to an opportunity: building anticipatory, inclusive financial infrastructure that can help protect households and businesses before a crisis becomes a catastrophe.

From a successful model to a global playbookA team of university researchers is working alongside faculty, industry partners, and community collaborators to explore how Rahat can be scaled to new geographies vulnerable to climate-related crises.Building on the 2024–25 Reach Alliance research, <a href="https://reachalliance.org/project/a-framework-for-scaling-rahat-globally-the-case-of-the-philippines/" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank" class="">the current project</a> will develop a practical guidebook to help Rumsan identify opportunities for expansion. The research focuses on four questions: What are the core pillars of Rahat’s success in Nepal? What constitutes its “efficiency core”—the essential mechanisms driving its impact? Which elements need to be adapted to new contexts? And what conditions are necessary for successful adoption?The Philippines will illustrate how the model could be adapted to a different geography and climate-risk context while identifying conditions that could support future expansion.Rahat is also evolving toward crypto-based CVA, with the potential to enable cross-border transactions, faster settlements, and greater financial accessibility for unbanked populations. Successful scale will depend not only on the technology alone, but on understanding local systems, community needs, institutional capacity, and the conditions that allow new infrastructure to be adopted and trusted.Looking aheadAt its core, anticipatory action is about changing when and how support reaches people. Instead of waiting for a disaster and then mobilizing resources, it uses available data, technology, and early warnings to act before the impact is felt.As climate shocks become more frequent and severe, this shift from reactive relief to proactive protection will become increasingly important. Financial infrastructure that enables people to prepare, protect livelihoods, and recover more quickly is an important part of building long-term resilience.As the Center looks toward the <a href="http://www.inclusivegrowthevents.com/event/asean-2026/" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank" class="">2026 ASEAN Inclusive Growth Summit</a> in Manila this November, research like this underscores the importance of enabling public-private partnerships to drive impact. The experience of Rahat offers one pathway toward that future using technology, partnerships, and anticipatory action to ensure assistance reaches communities not only after disaster strikes, but when it can make the greatest difference.

Anticipatory action and new financial infrastructure can help vulnerable households and small businesses prepare for climate shocks, protect livelihoods, and recover faster. 

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The Reach Alliance

A leading global network of stakeholders from across sectors committed to advancing the sustainable development agenda.

Building financial and climate resilience before disaster strikes